Patients with allergic asthma have lower risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes than patients with nonallergic asthma.

BACKGROUND: Although asthma does not appear to be a risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), outcomes could vary for patients with different asthma subtypes. The objective of this analysis was to compare COVID-19 outcomes in real-world cohorts in the United States among patients with asthma, with or without evidence of allergy. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis of the COVID-19 Optum electronic health record dataset (February 20, 2020-January 28, 2021), patients diagnosed with COVID-19 with a history of moderate-to-severe asthma were divided into 2 cohorts: those with evidence of allergic asthma and those without (nonallergic asthma). After 1:1 propensity score matching, in which covariates were balanced and potential bias was removed, COVID-19 outcomes were compared between cohorts. RESULTS: From a COVID-19 population of 591,198 patients, 1595 patients with allergic asthma and 8204 patients with nonallergic asthma were identified. After propensity score matching (n = 1578 per cohort), risk of death from any cause after COVID-19 diagnosis was significantly lower for patients with allergic vs nonallergic asthma (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% CI 0.28-0.83; P = 0.0087), and a smaller proportion of patients with allergic vs nonallergic asthma was hospitalized within - 7 to + 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis (13.8% [n = 217] vs 18.3% [n = 289]; P = 0.0005). Among hospitalized patients, there were no significant differences between patients with allergic or nonallergic asthma in need for intensive care unit admission, respiratory support, or COVID-19 treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Asthma subtype may influence outcomes after COVID-19; patients with allergic asthma are at lower risk for hospitalization/death than those with nonallergic asthma.

Calibrating COVID-19 susceptible-exposed-infected-removed models with time-varying effectivecontact rates.

We describe the population-based susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g. to the daily number of confirmed new cases, as the history of the disease strongly affects predictions of future scenarios. We demonstrate an approach based on inversion of the SEIR equations in conjunction with statistical modelling and spline-fitting of the data to produce a robust methodology for calibration of a wide class of models of this type. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.

The Role of Micronutrients and Toxic Metals in the Management of Epidemics in Cambodia.

The illegal trade of wildlife in SE Asia has been identified as the likely cause of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reviewed 198 papers on the current COVID pandemic in Cambodia, diseases such as avian influenza and Nipah virus, most likely to develop into a new pandemic in Cambodia, and common features of disease that require mitigation. Artisanal goldmining uses pure mercury in the areas where wildlife is smuggled to China. Moreover, 30-40% of Cambodians are zinc deficient. High levels of arsenic in irrigation water (>1000 µg/L) are associated with very low levels of zinc in rice (5 µg/g) and rice is the primary staple food for the region. Brown rice from nine of 15 paddy fields in the arsenic zone of Cambodia had double the new guidelines of 100 µg/kg inorganic arsenic for children's food in the EU and USA. The combination of deficiencies of essential micronutrients like zinc and pervasive presence of arsenic and mercury has the potential to compromise the immunity of many Cambodians. Innovative solutions are suggested to improve micronutrient nutrition. Toxins that suppress the immune system must be better managed to reduce the virulence of pathogens. Cambodia was not likely the source of the COVID-19 but does have problems that could result in a new pandemic.

Successful maintenance of process and outcomes for oesophageal cancer surgery in Ireland during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The emergence of the novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the coronavirus disease COVID-19 has impacted enormously on non-COVID-19-related hospital care. Curtailment of intensive care unit (ICU) access threatens complex surgery, particularly impacting on outcomes for time-sensitive cancer surgery. Oesophageal cancer surgery is a good example. This study explored the impact of the pandemic on process and short-term surgical outcomes, comparing the first wave of the pandemic from April to June in 2020 with the same period in 2019. METHODS: Data from all four Irish oesophageal cancer centres were reviewed. All patients undergoing resection for oesophageal malignancy from 1 April to 30 June inclusive in 2020 and 2019 were included. Patient, disease, and peri-operative outcomes (including COVID-19 infection) were compared. RESULTS: In 2020, 45 patients underwent oesophagectomy, and 53 in the equivalent period in 2019. There were no differences in patient demographics, co-morbidities, or use of neoadjuvant therapy. The median time to surgery from neoadjuvant therapy was 8 weeks in both 2020 and 2019. There were no significant differences in operative interventions between the two time periods. There was no difference in operative morbidity in 2020 and 2019 (28% vs 40%, p = 0.28). There was no in-hospital mortality in either period. No patient contracted COVID-19 in the perioperative period. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing surgical resection for oesophageal cancer was feasible and safe during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland. The national response to this threat was therefore successful by these criteria in the curative management of oesophageal cancer.

The roles of a pediatric pulmonologist during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pediatric pulmonologists have been involved in the care of adult COVID-19 patients in a variety of ways, particularly in areas with a high concentration of cases. This invited commentary is a series of questions to Dr Mikhail Kazachkov, a pediatric pulmonologist at New York University, about his experiences to date in a major COVID-19 "hotspot" and his thoughts about how other pediatric pulmonologists facing this situation can best support their colleagues.

A proposal for the addressing the needs of the pediatric pulmonary work force.

Unprecedented opportunities and daunting difficulties are anticipated in the future of pediatric pulmonary medicine. To address these issues and optimize pediatric pulmonary training, a group of faculty from various institutions met in 2019 and proposed specific, long-term solutions to the emerging problems in the field. Input on these ideas was then solicited more broadly from faculty with relevant expertise and from recent trainees. This proposal is a synthesis of these ideas. Pediatric pulmonology was among the first pediatric specialties to be grounded deliberately in science, requiring its fellows to demonstrate expertise in scientific inquiry (1). In the future, we will need more training in science, not less. Specifically, the scope of scientific inquiry will need to be broader. The proposal outlined below is designed to help optimize the practices of current providers and to prepare the next generation to be leaders in pediatric care in the future. We are optimistic that this can be accomplished. Our broad objectives are (a) to meet the pediatric subspecialty workforce demand by increasing interest and participation in pediatric pulmonary training; (b) to modernize training to ensure that future pediatric pulmonologists will be prepared clinically and scientifically for the future of the field; (c) to train pediatric pulmonologists who will add value in the future of pediatric healthcare, complemented by advanced practice providers and artificial intelligence systems that are well-informed to optimize quality healthcare delivery; and (d) to decrease the cost and improve the quality of care provided to children with respiratory diseases.